Abuja, April 24, 2025 — The World Bank has projected a grim outlook for poverty reduction in Nigeria, warning that the poverty rate will rise by 3.6 percentage points by 2027.
The projection was contained in the Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report, unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.
Despite recent economic gains in Nigeria—particularly within the non-oil sector in the last quarter of 2024—the report noted that deep-rooted structural challenges, including heavy dependence on oil revenues and governance fragility, are expected to stall progress in reducing poverty.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
The World Bank expressed concern that while non-resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to achieve faster poverty reduction—thanks in part to strong agricultural commodity prices—resource-dependent nations like Nigeria are at risk of further economic strain due to declining oil prices and weak fiscal frameworks.
The broader picture across the continent remains troubling. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the highest rate of extreme poverty in the world. As of 2024, the region was home to 80% of the global population living in extreme poverty, amounting to 695 million people. Notably, half of the region’s 560 million extreme poor are concentrated in just four countries.
In comparison, South Asia accounts for 8% of the world’s extreme poor, East Asia and the Pacific 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3%.
The report warned that countries where resource wealth coincides with conflict or political instability are likely to face the greatest challenges. In 2024, poverty rates in such nations averaged 46%—13 percentage points higher than those in resource-rich but more stable countries.
To reverse the trend, the World Bank urged Nigeria and similar economies to prioritize reforms in fiscal governance and to establish a stronger fiscal contract with citizens. These steps, the report emphasized, are crucial for promoting inclusive economic growth and achieving long-term poverty alleviation.
